"...For these authors, China does not just confront “遏制” [containment] by the United States, but something perhaps even more bellicose: “围堵”[a condition of being under siege] or even “掣肘”[a condition of being held by the elbows]. For the purpose of restricting Chinese naval power in the eastern, southern and western flanks, Washington is said to be constructing a “超长防线”[super long line of defense] that stretches from the Aleutian Islands to the Persian Gulf."
By Lyle Goldstein.
Interview with Vipin Narang.
"The United States Energy Information Administration has estimated that 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas lie below the seabed, including both proven and probable reserves. If those estimates prove correct, the South China Sea would be in the same league as Mexico, a midsize producer, and in the global top 10 in terms of gas."
"Clausewitz prophesies that each contender, mindful that it could be outdone, will apply more force than the bare minimum to avoid surrendering the first-mover advantage to the adversary. Leaders fear letting the opponent get the drop on them. Doing more, sooner, helps a protagonist stay ahead of the competition and bolster its prospects of victory. An escalatory dynamic takes hold if everyone does more than simple cost-benefit logic dictates....
...A fight over seemingly minor stakes, then, could mushroom into a major conflagration arraying China against the US-Japan alliance."
By James Holmes.
"Strategic issues are not the only driver behind the recent incidents involving Chinese fishermen."
"geopolitical argument cannot explain why the Chinese government (with few exceptions) fails to provide financial compensation for many the fishermen who are detained or harassed by neighboring countries. Indeed, some fishermen are fined or disqualified from receiving fuel subsidies by the Chinese government after they return to China."
"This structural shift from inshore to offshore fishing is the result of the combined effects of market forces and the government’s fishing policies."
By Zhang Hongzhou
"It is entirely conceivable that one of the many coast guard vessels on either side patrolling the contested islets could suddenly come under fire or, more likely still, become severely damaged in a bumping incident (of the type that has occurred recently in the South China Sea). In such circumstances, the steps from gun fire to exchanging volleys of anti-ship missiles between the fleets, to theater wide attacks on major bases, to all out global war could be all too abrupt. Hollywood, which is perennially looking for apocalyptic scenarios, may want to examine contemporary China-Japan relations for developing next summer’s blockbuster suspense film."
By Lyle Goldstein.
"Rather than dismiss the Chinese governing system as fragile and tenuous, we need to understand what has been, by the standard of the past three decades, an extraordinarily successful institution, one that the world will increasingly come to recognise it must learn from..."
"A danger is that an ascendant China seeking recognition of its power and rights, will, whether deliberately or through miscalculation, spark conflict."
An archive of news and resources on East Asian security. Rather than adhering to a particular political agenda, this archive aims to bring together diverse and insightful resources found while conducting research.