[South China Morning Post] ‘Stop making the situation worse’: North Korea’s H-bomb test draws condemnation from Beijing. 01/06/16
“We strongly urge [North Korea] to remain committed to its denuclearisation commitment, and stop taking any actions that would make the situation worse,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (華春瑩) said."
Cai said "For China, North Korea’s nuclear programme itself does not pose major security threats, but rather it’s the resulting response from the US and Japan, such as enhancing their military deployment in the region, that is causing a headache for Beijing.”
"The signing of the long-expected China-US army dialogue mechanism and the country's upcoming agreement on the air-to-air annex to the code of conduct on military encounters represent a leap forward in the relationship between the countries, analysts have said."
"Guan Youfei, director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Ministry of National Defense, said afterward that the two armies could hold joint exercises on land next year.
They vowed to reach agreement on the air-to-air annex to the code of conduct before President Xi Jinping visits the US in September.
Major General Yao Yunzhu, a senior researcher at the People's Liberation Army's Academy of Military Science, said, 'The annex on air-to-air encounters aims to prevent crises, while the dialogue mechanism between the armies mainly helps with cooperation.'"
By Thomas Christensen, Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University. Also a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
"The U.S. has ways to reduce a threat posed by China’s ability to wage asymmetric warfare. But a future U.S. president might be reluctant to use some of the more effective methods the American military has at its disposal"
"No U.S. president has ever launched robust conventional attacks against the homeland of a nation with nuclear retaliatory capability."
"If the U.S. were to attack missile systems and submarines for the purpose of protecting against conventional attack early in a conflict, Washington could unintentionally compromise portions of China’s nuclear arsenal as well. Chinese leaders could mistakenly view this as an attempt to eliminate China’s nuclear deterrent, risking escalation."
"a combination of U.S. power and resolve on the one hand, and diplomatic assurances on the other, can calm potentially volatile situations involving emotional sovereignty claims and a rising China."
"The vision statement — which is not legally-binding — was accompanied by concrete deliverables as well. For instance, Carter announced that the United States would provide $18 million to the Vietnamese Coast Guard to purchase American Metal Shark patrol vessels. This builds on existing U.S. efforts to assist Vietnam’s coast guard in the face of growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, not just through providing equipment but also training and curriculum development. He also announced that the Pentagon was stationing a peacekeeping expert at the American embassy in Vietnam to help educate and guide Vietnam’s entry into global peacekeeping operations."
"Evan Medeiros, a China expert who has worked at the National Security Council during all of Obama's tenure, will step down as the agency's Asia director on Thursday, officials said. He will be replaced by Daniel Kritenbrink, the deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.
White House officials said the personnel change did not portend any shift in U.S. policy toward China. Foreign policy experts in Washington who know Medeiros described his departure as a personal decision after a long run at the NSC, where officials work long hours under high-pressure situations."
By Thomas Christensen, Boswell professor of world politics and director of the China and the World Program at Princeton University, and a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
"Measures of the overall balance of power between two countries are most relevant when considering wars of survival, such as World War I and World War II. But most international security politics involves coercive diplomacy and limited military engagements short of full-scale war. In such struggles, geography, politics, psychology and perceptions can play an even more important role than the military balances of power"
"The missile appearing the still photographs released by KCNA is named “Bukgeungsong-1,” as indicated by the Korean characters on the airframe. Ironically, the name translates to “Polar Star” or “Polaris,” the latter parroting the name of the US Navy’s first-generation SLBM, initially deployed in the early-1960s. The Bukgeungsong-1 has a diameter-to-length ratio similar to that of the Soviet R-27 (4K10; SS-N-6), a sea-launched ballistic missile first deployed during the 1960s. The R-27 has a maximum range of about 2400 kilometers when delivering a 650-kilogram warhead."
"Firstly, the missile was ejected from the launch tube at a slight angle, not vertically. This was likely done to mimic the launch angle required when firing operational missiles that contain a full-propellant load. Indeed, the US and others launch SLBMs at an angle to ensure that if the missile’s main engine fails to ignite, the weapon loaded with volatile propellant does not fall back onto the submarine and explode. North Korea appears to have incorporated the safety protocol"
"Secondly, the missile’s liquid-propellant engine successfully ignited, demonstrating that the sequence and timing of events was nominally correct."
"employing a mock-up rather than a complete missile suggests that the test objectives were limited to evaluating the mechanism responsible for ejecting the missile from an underwater-launch tube, safely activating the missile’s propulsion system and stabilizing the missile as it accelerates upward."
"In their talks in Singapore, held on the fringes of the annual Asia Security Summit conference, also known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, Nakatani explained the security bills that the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing to pass and the revisions to the Japan-U.S. defense cooperation guidelines, Foreign Ministry officials said."
"The two security bills, which were adopted by Abe’s cabinet on the 14th, are intended to expand the scope of the SDF’s activities overseas and broaden the areas in which they can operate. The bills are named the kokusai heiwa shien hoan (international peace support bill) and the heiwa anzen hosei seibi hoan (peace and security legislation development bill). The former bill is to amend ten security-related laws to remove the geographical constraint of a current law on contingencies in “areas adjacent to Japan” that was enacted in 1999 in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula. One of the noteworthy laws, for example, is to enable Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense, or coming to the aid of a friendly nation under attack."
"The latter bill is to establish a permanent law that allows the government to send the SDF overseas to provide logistics support to a foreign military in armed combat and to replace the current temporary laws that must be enacted each time the SDF is dispatched on support missions in multinational operations."
"The two security bills still require the approval of the current Diet session to take effect, which is expected to undergo a heated debate... if passed...Japan would substantially shift away from its postwar defensive posture..."
An archive of news and resources on East Asian security. Rather than adhering to a particular political agenda, this archive aims to bring together diverse and insightful resources found while conducting research.