[The Diplomat] Balancing China and the Realist Road to War. 05/18/15

By Jie Dalei and Jared McKinney.

"Blackwill and Tellis do briefly discuss China’s likely responses. Oddly enough, they simply assume that China will choose to continue cooperation with the U.S. on a wide range of issues. But why assume China’s response to be so mild if the U.S. is blatantly and aggressively working to isolate it and keep it down? Here you see a much “nicer” China, one that would not “act in ways that damage its policy purposes and its reputation around Asia.”

"crises, even when resolved peacefully, vindicate the hawks of both sides, reinforcing visions of the other’s aggressiveness and, even more importantly, granting them additional influence among decision makers."

"In the final stage on the path to war, a new crisis develops – call it Senkaku, Scarborough, or a South China Sea ADIZ – neither side backs down as opinions of hawks now dominate the intellectual decision-making process, and war is the outcome"

http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/balancing-china-and-the-realist-road-to-war/